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The New Stats Explained
by Ryan T. Campbell
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Johanna quoted in the Chicago Tribune about Fan Safety.
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Winners Coming to Baltimore?
by Joseph Delgrippo
Wednesday, August 19, 2009 10:45am
The Roy Halladay sweepstakes were heating up and Halladay had recently dominated the Boston Red Sox. It that performance didn't help the cause for the best pitcher in baseball, nothing will. One of the main reasons for which Toronto Blue Jays GM JP Ricciardi was considering dealing Halladay is the Blue Jays are unable to compete against the mighty Red Sox or New York Yankees.
Even with the player and financial resources both those teams enjoy, they are still wary of the Tampa Bay Rays, last season's World Series participant.
If you think the AL East is tough right now, wait until the top young pitchers of the Baltimore Orioles begin to make their mark.
As Baltimore has wallowed in the bottom of the AL for the last several years, they have had top picks in the amateur draft. Early reports have the Orioles drafting very well recently, selecting future young stars C Matt Wieters and LHP Brian Matusz as their top picks in 2008 and 2007.
Wieters is already up with the parent club while Matusz has enjoyed an unblemished 7-0 record and 1.55 ERA in eight starts in AA Bowie.
Since owner Peter Angelos allowed Andy MacPhail control over the entire baseball operations, the Orioles have turned around their fortunes and actually have a future. Angelos oversaw a decade of turmoil where high-priced free agents were signed, money was wasted and continue mediocrity ensued.
MacPhail began a program where the Orioles had to get younger, quicker and better really fast. He traded established players such as Miguel Tejada and Erik Bedard for younger players, both impact position players and pitchers with power arms and high ceilings.
In fact, it was last seson when the Orioles system began to get noticed. While covering the AA Trenton Thunder, the Yankees affiliate, it was apparent the Bowie Bowsox had an incredible array of great arms on the pitching staff. At the end of the season, three starters were in double digits including Chris Tillman (11-4, 3.18), Brad Bergeson (15-6, 3.22), David Hernandez (10-4, 2.68) and Jason Berken (12-4, 3.58).
Funny thing about those four AA starters from last year. They are all now in the parent club rotation, with most holding their own. The last one to get a start was Tillman, probably the best of the bunch. He made his major league debut on Monday night against Justin Verlander and the Detroit Tigers, allowing five runs on seven hits in six innings.
This was one day before Matusz was making his Major League debut against the Tigers. It is never a bad idea to push your young starting pitchers in August, especially if they project to be in the rotation the next year. Youngsters need Major League time to develop into top pitchers.
Of the four newbies, only Berken has struggled, going 1-9 (ouch!) with a 6.93 ERA. He was pummeled in three of his 13 starts but has kept his team in the others. Guys like Hernandez (3-3, 3.28) and Bergeson (7-5, 3.43) are very good at mixing speeds, spotting pitches and using both sides of the plate.
They are also not afraid to throw inside, a key ingredient for success. And you don't have to throw really hard to be successful there, either, although Hernandez can hit 95 MPH on occasion.
Right now, only Jeremy Guthrie is the only member of the original rotation left in the current rotation. And even his job isn't safe for next season, as Matusz is likely going to win a rotation job out of spring training. Since the Orioles are going in that youth movement with all starters being under 25 years of age, I was surprised Guthrie wasn't dealt at the recent trading deadline-similar to how George Sherrill was dealt to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
In case any of the Fab Four continue their struggles next year, or even Matusz not given a rotation spot, even more good arms are waiting in the wings. Jake Arrieta dominated AA this year, eventually moving up to AAA, where he is 3-4, 4.70 but averaging less than a hit per inning.
Also, Brandon Erbe is progressing nicely, too. He was promoted to AA mid-season, making eight starts thus far, going 2-3, 2.50 ERA averaging almost a K per inning while holding hitters to a .200 BAA. Harnessing his control is key for Erbe, a third round pick in 2005. He is still only 21 years old.
Other pitchers to look out for include Eddie Gamboa and Kenny Moreland, who are both 2008 college graduates currently at High A Frederick, but has dominated every level they have been. Moreland is especially one who is interesting. Undrafted out of Christopher Newport University, he was the 2008 Division 3 College pitcher of the year and signed with his hometown Orioles after the draft.
The Orioles have an impressive crop of young arms, but their position players are also well represented, many who have already been promoted to the show.
The Orioles bided their time by not bringing up Wieters to start the season, extending his arbitration and free agent years. But now Wieters is fully entrenched as the starting catcher, and after a slow start, he has begun to hit major league pitching with authority.
He should be awarded the same type deal that the Rays gave Evan Longoria last season after they pulled the same arbitration garbage with him, too.
The Orioles need to lock up Wieters for a bunch of his prime season at low rates. It will show the fans that this MacPhail turnaround is for real and they are thinking long term.
But Wieters is not the only young slugger making an impact this season. Outfielder Nolan Reimold was a 2nd round pick in 2005 (remember this Orioles draft year!) and has not been overmatched. He has produced a .281/.367/.462/.828 OPS with 10 home runs and 29 RBI's in 221 at bats.
Reimold's production throughout his professional career has been very consistent, and there is ample reason to believe Reimold will only get better as he gets more major league time. I can easily see 30+ HR, 100+ RBI every year for Reimold in cozy Camden Yards.
Couple Reimold's and Wieters' power potential with Adam Jones, Nick Markakis and Brian Roberts hitting in front of them and that is the makings of a pretty good lineup for the next 5-7 seasons. You could also add in 31 year old Luke Scott (obtained in the Tejada trade) and his power.
As I mentioned earlier, I was surprised the Orioles did not try and trade Guthrie, but especially surprised hitters Aubrey Huff and Melvin Mora were not dealt. These players are two veterans who do not fit into any future plans for the Orioles, and likely will not get them any compensation when they leave for free agency.
If each could have been traded for even a marginal prospect, the team would be better off in the long run. But besides the aforementioned studs already in the majors, there are plenty more prospects ready to make their mark in Baltimore.
Likely taking over for Aubrey Huff at first base is Brandon Snyder, a converted catcher, who tore up the AA Eastern League this year. He posted a .343/.421/.597/.1.108 OPS (10 HR, 45 RBI) at Bowie before being promoted to AAA where he has more than held his own. Snyder is a former first round pick in 2005 (13th overall).
While Snyder is enjoying the upper levels of the Orioles farm, most of the other major league prospects are in the lower levels, specifically High A Frederick.
Brandon Waring was obtained from Cincinnati in the Ramon Martinez trade, and continues to hit for big time power. The 23 year old pounded out 20 HR's in his first full year of pro ball, and thus far has followed that up with 18 HR's and 67 RBI's at Frederick, while cutting down on his strikeouts.
Caleb Joseph was the Orioles 7th round pick in 2008 and the catcher is tearing up the High A level with a .324/.362/.493/.855 OPS with nine HR's and 51 RBI's. He has also popped 19 doubles while striking out only 47 times in over 300 plate appearances. Even with Wieters probably holding the catching job for the next decade, a team can never have enough catchers for flexibility and trade value.
Despite al the power which has surfaced from the Orioles farm, one hitter who they projected to rake is former 2006 1st round pick Billy Rowell (9th overall), taken one pick BEFORE the San Francisco Giants selected Tim Lincecum.
While still young at 20 years of age, Rowell has disappointed with his inability to adjust to higher levels of pitching and seems to struggle with off-speed pitches. Like many high school position players taken in the first round, Rowell can hit a fastball, but the real key to moving up is being able to lay off the junk.
He has yet to accomplish that monumental task. It appears that Rowell might be destined to be similar to another former high 1st round pick out of the state of New Jersey, Eric Duncan of the Yankees. A player with massive talent who failed to make the necessary adjustments.
Other hitters permeate the Orioles levels, and while none can be projected as future perennial All-Stars, they are good ballplayers who can help the big league club—or provide trade depth.
Guys to keep an eye on include Matt Tucker, a relatively big second baseman (6'2", 195), who was drafted in the 31st round out of hitting rich Dallas Baptist University. He has good BA and OBP numbers, but this season has slugged the ball well, too, in Frederick. Joining Tucker at Frederick is third baseman Tyler Henson, a 21 year old who has shown flashes of power.
Also obtained in the Ramon Hernandez deal is Justin Turner, a high average, low-strikeout guy who can also pop the ball out once in a while.
If you have read some of my past pieces, you know that I love underdogs. Guys who have produced the numbers but, whether it is age or their history, aren't necessarily considered "top prospects." The Orioles version of this player is AAA outfielder Jeff Fiorentino. While not wildly discussed, Fiorentino, does one thing really well; he hits everywhere he has played.
The still young 26 year old was considered a top guy, so much so that he was the first position player from the 2004 draft to make the majors. He was called up form High A Frederick to the majors and performed well, but curiously, was released not once, but twice in his career afterwards. He is back with his original team, hitting .326/.394/.520/.914 OPS with 9 homers and 56 RBI's.
I am hoping that Fiorentino gets another shot to help the Orioles. He can certainly offer more offense than Felix Pie. Maybe when the O's rid themselves of More and Huff next season, their might be room for Fiorentino.
The key for the Orioles has been those recent big trades which sent out Bedard, Tejada and Hernandez. But the Orioles have also recently drafted well, and when a team wants to replace aging veterans with cheaper talent, the draft is the key ingredient.
But despite the high picks on new major leaguers Matusz and Wieters, many of the other top guys producing were lower picks. The 2004 draft included Bergeson (4th rd), the 2005 draft (remember that year?) produced starting pitcher David Hernandez in 16th round, Brandon Erbe (3rd rd.), Nolan Reimold (2nd Rd). Future first baseman Brandon Snyder was taken first overall in 2005.
The changes put in place by Andy MacPhail have begun to take shape. The big trades coupled with the good drafts have given the Orioles fan base cause for hope in the next coming years. The big arms in the rotation (five rookies so far this year!) need their guns to fire away if they want to complete in the big, bad AL East with the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays.
Despite the grief and ridicule heaped upon owner Peter Angelos and his sons for ruining a once proud franchise, credit must be given for knowing they needed to step away and let baseball people begin to run their circus.
The new big top could producing a winner in the near future.
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