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Hunter Manchak is a lifelong baseball fan with a weakness for the word 'upside.' He is currently pursuing a Masters degree in Sports Business Management from New York University.
Previous Columns:
A Review of the San Francisco Giants Stars of the Future
The Marlins- The Team to Watch
Which NL Central Team is Poised to Compete
Love My Prospects
Rookie Hitters through the 10-year lens
by Hunter Manchak

Just one year removed from a phenomenal rookie class, baseball is once again flush with an impressive crop of first year talent. While the debate will soon commence about which players will take home Rookie of the Year honors, the more important question is which ones will be better over the course of their careers. It's still very early, to be sure, but after 250 Major League at-bats, trends start emerging that may give hints as to the career path of young hitters.

7. Dustin Pedroia - 2B, Boston Red Sox: 4 HR, 30 RBI, .317/.391/.436
After a horrendous April during which he batted just .182, Pedroia has begun building a strong case for American League rookie of the Year. He's not going to hit for a lot of power (eight was his highest home run total in any minor league season), but if he can continue to get on base and play defense like he has (2 errors in 2007), Pedroia should be a fixture at second and in the two-spot for Boston for years to come.

6. Hunter Pence - OF, Houston Astros: 12 HR, 45 RBI, .330/.355/.564
Although Pence was a very highly regarded prospect at the start of 2007, he has put up numbers a bit out of step with his ability. Pence's free-swinging plate approach has yielded strong power numbers and a robust average despite a 6:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Over the long term, Pence's approach is likely to drastically regress towards the mean-balls falling in the gaps for doubles should start falling into fielder's mitts. A good comparison is Jeff Francoeur circa 2005, whose stellar rookie season was followed by a sophomore slump as pitchers began to exploit his poor plate discipline.

5. Chris Young - CF, Arizona Diamondbacks: 18 HR, 37 RBI, .244/.295/.453
Entering the season with lofty comparables like Barry Bonds (that skinny guy who played for the Pirates) and Andruw Jones, Young's expectations were obviously very high. It hasn't been a smooth transition to the Majors, but Young has hit for power and brought some decent speed. In playing a tremendous center field, the Jones comparison seems a bit more apt. Young never did hit higher than .290 at any stop in the minors, so the low average shouldn't come as much of a surprise. That said, Young has often been an all-or-nothing type of a hitter (he's batting a Richie Sexsonesque .253 on balls he puts in play) and has been largely overmatched against quality pitchers. Young did walk a fair amount in the minors, and he is just 23 years old so there is certainly still hope that he can be the superstar so many have projected him to be, and not just another Jonny Gomes.

4. Delmon Young - RF, Tampa Bay Devil Rays: 9 HR, 54 RBI, .290/.322/.418
One of the more ballyhooed and intriguing rookies heading into this season, many had Young penciled-in for 30 home runs and 100 RBIs. While the RBIs have been there, for the most part the power has not. Young's measly on-base percentage is troublesome, especially as he is on pace to strikeout over 120 times. Coming up through the minors, Young was most often compared to Vladimir Guerrero and Albert Belle. The Guerrero comparison has proved to be inappropriate; Vlad does swing freely, but he has never struck out much and was always able to draw a high number of walks. Young does resemble Belle more at the plate, but has not shown the same power numbers that Belle did when struggling to get on base early on in his career. Swinging the bat is clearly a big part of Young's game. However, if he is to meet his lofty expectations, he'll need to be more selective at the plate, or start driving the ball with more authority. Failing that, his career may end up more like that of his older brother Dmitri, a chronic underachiever.

3. Troy Tulowitzki - SS, Colorado Rockies: 12 HR, 46 RBI, .277/.350/.429
One of the youngest players on this list at 22, Tulowitzki may already be the most well-rounded of the bunch. Tulo has shown decent power, the ability to take a walk or spray the ball to any part of the park, and has also proved to be one of the Rockies most clutch hitters. To top it all off, the Long Beach State alum may well be on his way to a Gold Glove, as he has committed just six errors in 96 games. Tulowitzki should eventually settle in as a doubles machine batting second with 25-home run power.

2. Alex Gordon - 3B, Kansas City Royals: 7 HR, 35 RBI, .243/.321/.381
For a player realistically billed as the heir apparent to George Brett, Gordon's April/May performance was completely mind-boggling. In his first 49 games, the (supposedly) sweet swinging former Nebraska Cornhusker struck out 48 times and batted just .185. Things have gotten better (.316 with 4 HR and 27 RBIs since June 6th) but for a player who was an on-base machine in college and in his lone minor league season, his plate discipline has so far not translated to the bigs. Many of those in the know billed Gordon as the best hitting prospect in all of baseball coming into the season and few have changed their opinions, despite Gordon's struggles. I say kudos to the Royals for allowing the third baseman to work himself through his struggles (but then, did they really have any other options?); when he swings, it's clear that the team's faith is not misplaced. Perhaps the arrival and emergence of fellow uber-prospect Billy Butler will relieve some of the pressure on Gordon and allow him to develop the power that will make 120-plus strikeouts easier to stomach.

1. Ryan Braun - 3B, Milwaukee Brewers: 18 HR, 49 RBI, .349/.395/.668 11 errors
There was little doubt from anyone that Ryan Braun would be an absolute monster at the plate in the big leagues. He improved across the board at each stop in the minors, culminating in a brief but dominating stint in Nashville during which he slugged 22 extra base hits in 117 at bats. The only question surrounding Braun was his defensive struggles, as he notched 31 errors in 2006. Once the Brewers hot start was cooled, Braun was called upon and has been more than up to the task. Braun could walk a bit more, but even that might be a bit nit-picky. The 23-year old has commanded the strike zone and should be a terrific right-handed complement to Prince Fielder for many years to come. The defense continues to be a concern (11 errors) but by all accounts Braun is committed to working hard to stay at the position. That approach coupled with his offensive production is exactly you want in a young hitter, a combination that should portend a superstar career in the making.

 
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